A World of Milk

Until the end of March, EU farmers could only produce a certain amount of milk. And then the quotas were lifted. Efficient farmers were overjoyed. It meant they could produce as much as they wanted and bask in greater profits. 

But almost as soon as that happened, milk prices began to plummet. From a high of 39c per litre of milk in 2014, farmers this year faced a low of 26c per litre, a fall of 33%. 

And farmers are angry, not just about milk prices but falling profits in general. In early September, thousands drove their tractors to Brussels and faced down 3,000 riot police. The protesters caused major traffic problems, set bales alight, and sprayed the police with milk.

And what has been driving the collapse in prices is interesting.

Firstly, Russia has had a ban on imports of dairy products from the EU since August 2014, in response to EU sanctions on Russia which were in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Thus the Russian import ban has removed demand there.

Secondly, China wants less milk and wants a lower price for the milk it does want. Why? Well it wants less because it built up excess in 2014 and now the economy is slowing down; and it wants a lower price because the current price was negotiated when China was desperate in 2013, which was when it stalled milk imports from New Zealand when some were found to be contaminated.

Thirdly, good weather in The US in 2014 led to better crop yields and lower feed costs there. This helped increase milk production and decrease price.  So the US has been able to supply itself better and so demand there has fallen.

So a war in Ukraine, bacteria in New Zealand, and temperatures in Texas have all led to European dairy farmers feeling the pinch. And that pinch is stark. A very efficient farmer in Ireland can produce for 20c a litre and an average yield is about 14 litres per cow per day. So in 2014 an efficient farmer was earning €2.66 per cow per day, and in 2015 he or she was earning as low as €0.84 per cow per day. Less efficient farmers were obviously earning less. 

Farmers' groups wanted the EU to increase the price at which it intervenes in the market, which is 21c per litre since 2009. But price intervention would be a mistake because it would set a precedent. Instead, the EU is giving out €500m in aid. But this is simply intervention by another name and which of course naturally sets a precedent. That precedent is that the rewards for better efficiency and innovation are smaller. Why get up at 5 if you know your neighbour gets up at 8 for the same income?

Efficient farmers do not want intervention. They argue the market should be allowed bottom out. This has happened this year and prices are rising. The market has corrected itself. But still the EU is giving out aid. It shouldn't. Efficiency needs to be rewarded.

So the takeaway point is how small changes in other regions can have profound changes in ours. And how policy should acknowledge that. And how protectionism is naive. 

Our globalized world fits in a milk carton: something to think about when pouring your tea.

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Leader

So Jeremy Corbyn has been elected leader of the UK Labour Party. 

During the campaign the media repeatedly called him, derogatorily,  a 'radical leftwinger'. This in itself tells us how far Labour moved, beginning with Blair, from its origins. And as Corbyn's competition were all in the Blairite vein, his huge success indicates Party members' disillusionment with that way of doing things. Blair made Labour indistinguishable from the Conservatives. Labour voters have now said they want change. They want a genuine, accessible, and principled leader.

Corbyn is all of that. Members found that he 'spoke to them', understood them, and was believable. He offers substance to a society disillusioned with politics.

The challenge for him is ensuring that the general population both likes him and buys into his thinking. He will have to mellow. Nationalisation of industry will not happen. Getting rid of the UK's nuclear weapons arsenal will not happen. And curtailing the power of the City of London will be very difficult.

But despite that, his election is momentous because it signals an appetite for a proper political debates that put principles and people first. The Conservatives have stripped the UK society to the bone in recent years, and plan to do it further over the coming years. You cannot keep cutting taxes and cutting expenditure and expect service quality to remain the same. Corbyn will highlight this. He will emphasise not just its inequity, but the flawed logic behind it as well. 

As we move toward our own General Election here, it is clear these debates are not yet taking place. Our politicians have neither the ability nor desire to engage in debate about their political philosophies. On the one hand the Government will highlight strong economic growth and falling unemployment figures - on the other hand, the opposition will highlight regional inequality and 'the same old politics' of cronyism.

But this is not debate. This is just shouting. We need to be more honest with our voters. And deal with the facts. Corbyn does that. 

His Shadow Cabinet, announced on Monday, has strong likeable personalities. This will help redefine the Party's image. It is an image that resonated with 59% of voters in the leadership election. 

I hope it is an image that appeals to the general population as well.  

Northern Ireland Politics

Politics in Northern Ireland is in a crisis. The Executive is crumbling and people aren't talking to each other. So what has happened?

Well the DUP and Sinn Féin distrust each other. And at the same time have had to share power since 2007. And they've been disagreeing about welfare reform for years. The rest of the UK introduced such reform but Sinn Féin blocked this in Northern Ireland. An agreement was reached last December but that feel apart in Spring. So that's the first problem.

Then in May a former senior IRA leader, Jock Davison, was killed. And then in August another former member, Kevin McGuigan, was also killed, possibly in a revenge attack. The Police announced the IRA may have been involved and so may be actually still active.  Sinn Féin rejected this. And all politicians in Northern Ireland, the Republic, and UK were worried. The DUP asked how this could be: apparently the IRA was gone but now we're told it might be still around.

As part of the investigation the Police arrested and interviewed senior Sinn Féin members, including its NI Chairman. Gerry Adams said the Police should be allowed do their job - but also said he was concerned about the arrests.

The DUP wanted Stormont suspended but London said no. So the party then tried to suspend things from within the assembly itself. But the UUP, SDLP, and Sinn Féin all went against this. The UUP also withdrew its only Minister from Executive meetings. Then on Thursday the First Minister Peter Robinson and all his DUP colleagues but one (Arlene Foster) stepped aside: they said they couldn't work with Sinn Féin. But the Executive didn't fall. Arlene Foster became acting First Minister. She now currently heads an Executive with vacant cabinet seats and which is otherwise Sinn Féin and SDLP. And she has to fill these vacant seats.

But Arlene Foster has also said that Sinn Féin and the SDLP will damage her Unionist community, and she has to prevent that. So the acting First Minister is effectively saying she is only interested in standing up for one part of Northern Irish society. This is unacceptable for a leader to say.

All of this shows what a mess things are in. And although a lot of it is complicated, there are some simple points to make.

1. Trust the police. Sinn Féin say let the Police do their job and also criticise them when they do. This has to end. Sinn Féin will gain more respect if they don't comment on ongoing police investigations.
2. Represent everyone. Arlene Foster may be a Unionist, but she is acting First Minister, a role that requires, naturally, promoting unity. Sectionalism should be forgotten about: they are politicians for all people in Northern Ireland, not just for their voters.  
3. Be pragmatic. Northern Ireland is too dependent on welfare and the public service. Some consolidation is needed. Sinn Féin should not take London money but refuse to accept the conditions.

The upshot is that Dublin, London, and Washington all want things sorted this week, through inter-party talks that start on Monday.  Agreememt is possible. And trust, inclusiveness, and pragmatism would help achieve that. This week offers a chance to show proper leadership on all of these fronts.

World Suicide Prevention Day

Today we must think about those we've lost to suicide and those who near that point. Those who feel helpless, desperate, and alone. We shouldn't blame ourselves and we shouldn't blame them. The mind doesn't speak for itself: it needs our actions and will and desire to communicate. The power of talking blows the fuse on despondency.

But although things are changing on a micro level and we are opening up, a stigma about mental health remains. St Patrick's Mental Health Services today released some startling statistics from an online survey they undertook:

• Only 53% think those with a mental health difficulty are trustworthy.
• 67% think Irish people view being treated for a mental health difficulty as a sign of personal failure.
• About 1 in 4 think Irish people would not accept someone with a mental health issue as a close friend.
• 21% believe Irish employers would be comfortable employing someone with a mental health problem.
• 29% would not trust someone with a previous mental health difficulty to babysit.
• 53% of people have worked with someone who has been treated with a mental health issue.
• 62% have a close friend who was treated with a mental health difficulty.
• 43% report that a member of their family was previously treated.
• 9% would not want to live next door to someone who previously had a mental health problem.
• 5% say people with a previous history of a mental health issue should be excluded from taking public office.
• 13% would not marry someone who previously experienced a mental health problem even though he/she seems fully recovered.

What's interesting is how respondents address the question of what 'Irish people' think. It doesn't matter what 'Irish people' think. Thinking like this perpetuates the stigma. The stigma remains because we are caught up in the views of others.

Instead, we should think about our own feelings, our own views, our own friends, and our own families. We cannot control how other people think. And trying to do so is unhealthy.

To truly tackle stigma and to truly tackle suicide, we need to talk and trust ourselves. The stigma will fall away when we take control of our own views and ignore what 'Irish people' think. 

So if you are having issues, are unhappy and feel unheard, speak up: you may believe the world is deaf; but it's only listening to your silence. 

Germany & #refugeecrisis - is #refugeeswelcome genuine?

In 2014 Germany dealt with 200,000 asylum seekers; in 2015, it expects to process 800,000, and today (08.09) the Vice-Chancellor has said that it can absorb 500,000 a year for the next several years. 

The EU media has been quick to praise Germany. And German leaders have been quick to praise their people. But all of this is an oversimplification.

From the state's perspective, Germany needs millions of workers. Syrians are highly educated and Western-minded. Absorption of such refugees will benefit the society and economy and ensure Germany's prosperity in the medium to long term, which is not currently assured.

On the side of the people, warm welcomes at train stations are contrasted with protests against refugees in some regions (largely eastern regions) that have been going on over three years. Such protests have been met with counter-protests, some of which I was part. The media failed refugees in the years up to now by not highlighting these issues. And the same media now lauds to openness of the German people. It is disingenuous to refugees and the debate to only highlight the positive news stories. 

The reality is that we don't really know where Germany or Germans actually stand on these issues. A good example of this is shown in the video below. In July, Angela Merkel, whilst at a forum for young people, told a girl from Palestine (whose residents are not well educated) that Germany must send some asylum seekers home. It cannot allow the floodgates to be opened because it cannot absorb millions.

Less than two months later, this policy has drastically changed. It is not clear why. It may be altruism, it may be economic self-interest, or it may be geopolitics. Whatever the reason, it is important that the new policy is adhered to so that other countries can be influenced likewise.

Europe cannot risk continued flip-flopping on this issue. Consistency in German policy can guide that. 

Later in the week I will write a policy paper on the Dublin Convention, which is at the heart of European refugee policy . 

Angela Merkel indicating to a young refugee that "some will have to go home".

#refugeeswelcome

It took a picture to shock the public, the media, and the politicians. 

But this has been going on years. 

I was discussing these issues with my housemate in Germany, who worked with refugees, over 3 years ago.

In the meantime thousands and thousands have died.  

We did nothing.  

We are living a naive theory of international relations where we don't intervene in conflict.  

And we are living an inappropriate European migration system. 

We don't solve the issue at source and we don't solve the issue in Europe. 

It has taken a boy on a beach to make us realise that.  

Nuclear Scotland

Good morning Scotland!

Thank you for voting No! 

Here's a nuclear hub - 

Hidden in a sub -  

Spreading fear -  

In waters unclear.  

Spillage

I was on holidays.

I spilled tea on my laptop.

I couldn't write articles or make videos. 

So it was fortunate for me that politics is resting.

Helpless #Calais

They funnel toward the tunnel -

Darkness in their eyes -

Climbing through our trucks -

As if breeding from the skies.

We build our fences higher -

Checking all the cars - 

We put a plaster on the pimple -

Society scabs and scars 

When #IrishWater Met #Eurostat - A Muse

The Troika came -

On a wet November evening -

And laughed -

That water was free.

They asked for change.

But we were skint -

And our lenders said no -

So we sat in a room -

And invented a company -

That was us in all but name.

It borrowed money -

Backed by us -

And dressed itself -

As a sheep -

In wolf's clothing.

It put in meters -

And gave allowances -

But we found it all taxing -

And so we gave out yards.

Thousands of us.

So we said to ourselves:

"Listen"

"Here's a hundred"

"Use that to pay us back".

But we are principled - 

And stubborn -

And one in two paid -

And one in two didn't. 

So again we were broke -

Without any plan -

Drowning in debt -

Before we began.

Europe arrived -

On a wet summer's day -

And laughed.

"You offered money -

To yourselves -

To pay yourself -

But only some of you pay?"

"And say you aren't yourself?"

It fell around.

It grabbed the buoy -

From the dead duck -

And left it - 

Floating -

On the balance sheet.

Happy Birthday Simon.

Water

Sipping plastic makes our morals elastic.

@MayoGAA

They're in their prime -  

And waste no time -  

In showing us all -  

That they are sublime. 

Gender Recognition

Today we give you rights -

And accept that you know best - 

But children - 

Silly children -

We treat different to the rest.  

#12th

Recall the Battle -

that started them all - 

And drum

And burn  

And stand proudly tall. 

This culture was planned - 

To orange from green - 

And we'll march  

Through the land -  

That our fathers made clean. 

Power-Politics

2010: US vetoes haircuts for Ireland's bondholders.

2015: US decides for Greece debt write-down.

"Power, child, power". 

Kenny in Mayo

Enda Kenny had a jet -  

Pick him up from Mayo - 

Where he was meeting his buddies.

Lucky man. 

Don't Knock it 'til you try it.  

#Aleppo

Celebrants of depravity -

Against architects of dissent -

Cheer and hoop -

To an Allah of their dreams - 

As barrels of bombastic bastardness

Bellow below.

 

Greece Says No

There are some things money can't buy.

For everything else, there's democracy.

The 8th

Take your fertile body,

and hide it from our eyes,

hang your head and pack your bags,

and let us live our life of lies.

Austerity

Brussels flexed its muscle, and fattens on the debt;

Athens starts a tussle, and ends the tete-a-tete.